Forrester: YouTube ‘will get sued and it will lose’
Steve Safran October 2nd, 2006
The piling on YouTube continues. First, Mark Cuban. Now it’s Forrester Research, with two analysts predicting a lawsuit that will beat YouTube and force it to take down all copyrighted material. While I agree that’s possible, I disagree with the conclusion that such a suit would cripple YT. The videos that really take off from YT are the homemade ones: think lonelygirl15, diet coke & mentos, Japanese Backstreet Boys, Evolution of Dance. Don’t take my word for it - just visit the “Most Viewed Ever” page. The other power of YT is in the Long Tail - the millions of vids that get a few plays each. The copyrighted video argument is a red herring. The first reaction to any new media is to fear it.
15 Comments Add your own
1. Anonymous | October 2nd, 2006 at 7:34 pm
sorry. here is case where i bet on lawyers and their angry media clients and the forrester conclusion and against the all-seeing safran.
yt is flirting with the fringes of copywrite infringement and it’s not the loss the material that will hurt them, it will be the litigation tie up and costs.
face it, lawyers win.
2. Mark Mascolino | October 2nd, 2006 at 8:37 pm
IANAL by any stretch of the imagination but I would think that any serious legal attack against YouTube would have to result in the company putting more stringent policies, procesdures and red tape into play when it comes to new submissions. Part of the beauty of YT is the simplicity and frictionless environment that they offer. If that diminishes, it might have a good chance of driving traffic elsewhere.
3. Rex | October 3rd, 2006 at 1:45 am
I never thought I’d say this, but I agree with Cuban and Forrester. There are probably 10 reasons that YouTube is successful (good social software, the embed code, occasionally-decent user-generated content, etc.), but the #1 has always been the copyrighted content. Eventually, someone will sue them, and their number one asset will disappear. Can they recover? Maybe. Just like Napster maybe could’ve recovered.
4. The Blogging Times »&hellip | October 3rd, 2006 at 4:32 am
[...] From the blogosphere: Between the Lines, Virtual Economics, PVR Wire, Lost Remote, robhyndman.com and NIMBLOG, Stop the YouTube hating Forrester Research, Josh Bernoff, moron, Mrk Cuban, Ted Schadler, YouTube [...]
5. invitedmedia | October 3rd, 2006 at 5:32 am
while i already said i thought they would be sued in short order, the prospect of immediate injunctive relief for the plaintiff(s) is almost nill.
the challenge for YT would be to CUT A DEAL.
their best hope is the plaintiff is a major network/studio, but i’ve already said i think that is remote, too much risk in a public backlash from the blogosphere.
if they can cut a deal with a major network and at least APPEAR to be making strides in policing themselves they can always argue that this is uncharted territory and probably set some sort of standard by which all will be judged.
either way i wished them luck at every turn.
if i had another suggestion: buy a blue suit.
6. Meri | October 3rd, 2006 at 7:22 am
But most of the clips you mentioned that drive YT (Backstreet Boys, Evolution of Dance) would be the type of content that would have to be pulled! They do not have rights to use that music to enhance their video.
All that’s left is Lonely Girl, and i hope she doesn’t have music on in the background….
7. Dan | October 3rd, 2006 at 9:37 am
One reason that YouTube’s top videos of all time are user generated is that the most popular illegally uploaded ones get taken down.
But… if you look at what happened with the Casino Royale trailer, people actually prefer to watch trailers if they are uploaded officially (and placed in the paid slot for a day or so). The unoffially uploaded CR trailers have a few thousand views each, while the studio’s one has >500,000.
YouTube needs to continue to cut deals to put official content on (and charging the owners for the privilege), while content owners need to appreciate that this can help to grow entertainment brands around the world - e.g. the use of Back To The Future clips in Brokeback To The Future - still up after 8 months.
8. Zoom-In Online&hellip | October 5th, 2006 at 3:27 pm
YouTube ‘will get sued and it will lose’…
Poor YouTube, they just want to be loved (and fingers crossed, get picked up while the valuations are still nice and high). Put aside for a moment that Mark Cuban has called any potential suitors morons, Forrestor Research think that……
9. Lost Remote TV Blog&hellip | October 6th, 2006 at 11:04 am
[...] Today there’s word that Google is in talks to buy YouTube for $1.6 billion, although nothing has been decided to date. Despite Google’s best efforts, Google Video still ranks behind YouTube, MySpace and Yahoo in video traffic. And Microsoft just launched its own competitor in beta. But in doing a deal, would Google open itself to some serious legal exposure? In the last week, Forrester Research and Mark Cuban both predicted YouTube will get sued — and lose. And clearly, Google has some deep pockets. Also, how would YouTube mesh with Google Video? Killing YouTube’s brand and seperate site independence to me seems like a mistake. But trying to distinguish it from Google Video could be confusing. Any ideas…? [...]
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