Safran: Stuff I got seriously wrong in 2006

Steve Safran December 13th, 2006

BY STEVE SAFRAN
MANAGING EDITOR
LOST REMOTE

Every year, writers look back on all they have done and congratulate themselves for the predictions they have made that came true. And every year, they conveniently ignore the stuff they got wrong. I always prefer writing about what I got wrong. What fun is it pointing out that you predicted something would work out? A million other writers probably predicted it too. This is the chief reason I don’t, professionally, “do predictions.” The web is full of predictions. They’re fun to do, and you should never take them too seriously.

With that in mind, I did better this year than I did in 2006 (“The Video iPod will be no big deal.”) Here we go:

LINKED IN: I had left it for dead. Is it me, or did Linked In kind of make a comeback? Suddenly it made a resurgence. I started getting a bunch of invitations again. Now it seems required. Proof of the value of online networking.

DEL.ICIO.US: Nothing with that horrible a URL could ever catch on. In 2006, it really did. To the point where that “Four Squares That Make Up a Bigger Square” logo of theirs became a must-add to blogs and web-smart sites. Every newsroom should have a group account. Still a terrible address, proof that usefulness trumps URL.

MONETIZING YOUTUBE: Now, I’ve been a big fan of YouTube all along. Plenty of naysayers here at LR have figured YT would never make a penny. $1.6 billion can’t be wrong. But what I got wrong was thinking their future would be in pre-roll advertising. I still support pre-rolls, but Cory hates them and they’re dying just as fast as some people are starting to adopt them. Post-Google-acquisition, the YouTube monetization model is in targeted advertising and maybe sponsored graphics on the video.

THE ELECTIONS: I figured the GOP would hold the House and the Senate. This has nothing to do with the web. Unless it does. I will argue that YouTube changed the balance of power in the Senate. One word: “Macaca.” Proof of the power of one person with one camera.

WINDOWS VISTA: How can I be wrong about something that still hasn’t come out (which I rightly predicted)? It’s a qualified wrong. The early reviews are good. I expected a modest upgrade, but what I have seen has been quite good. I still don’t think it will be any better than a Mac, however. Stay tuned for “Things I got seriously wrong in 2007.”

NANCY GRACE: Still has a job. Thankfully, Aruba survives. Proof that ratings trumps credibility, self-parody and the perception of an entire national news channel.

LONELYGIRL15: While I was correct in guessing from the start that the thing was a work of fiction, I was wrong in guessing its origin. I figured there was a big company behind it, trying out some new viral marketing thingy. Turns out it was performance art. Or maybe it’s a new viral art thingy trying to be marketing. Whatever. I’m still wrong.

CORY GETS ENGAGED: Despite years of protestation, even LR Emperor-For-life Cory Bergman was swayed by the unending charms of Kate Anderson and proposed marriage. For once, I’m exceptionally happy to be wrong. Proof that love conquers all. Or that Kate does, anyway.

In all, not a horrible set of predictions to get wrong, especially about my partner at One LR Plaza. Still, I’m hoping to improve upon my record in 2007. First prediction? Apple’s iTV is not a game-changer and will not be close to the success that the iPod is.

I think.