Silly study about DVRs and commercials
Cory Bergman December 26th, 2007
This is a quote from a Hollywood Reporter story, “Ads A-OK on DVRs,” about a new study on the impact of DVRs on standard commercials: “Fewer than half of the people watching a DVR recording said they fast-forward through ads, meaning that DVR use does not significantly impact (commercial) ratings.”
Ok, let’s do a little math (please check me). They don’t disclose the actual number, but let’s assume 40 percent of DVR owners skip commercials (which equals what Nielsen has said in the past). DVR penetration is 20 percent. The average American over the age of 2 watches 272 minutes of TV a day, according to the TVB (in 2005). And overall viewing increases 16 percent among DVR owners. So when you hash out all these numbers, the average DVR viewer watches 189 minutes of TV with commercials every day. Assuming an equal distribution of commercials, that works out to a 6 percent net negative impact on commercial ratings.
Is that significant? I’d say yes, especially if you look at it from the perspective of a 6 percent drop in commercial value. No, it’s not devastating by any means, but don’t forget DVR penetration is still growing fast. I’m not diminishing the continued commercial power of television — it’s still the big game in town — but let’s be careful about how we interpret these DVR studies. It is a significant, growing number. So let’s implement innovative ways to offset (and even capitalize) on commercial skipping instead of allowing studies like these and their reporting (”Ads A-OK on DVRs”) to pull the wool over our eyes.
8 Comments Add your own
1. J$ | December 26th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
40% skipping out of 20% of homes=8% of all homes are skipping commercials… however those 8% are watching 16% more TV than avg, so in reality it’s probably the equivalent of over 9%.
Also if you’ve skipped commercials and watch 4 hours of TV, you’ve actually watched 5 hours worth of network time.
And just because you’re “viewing” commercials doesn’t always mean you’re watching commercials.
2. Joe Bongloader | December 27th, 2007 at 2:39 am
Here’s where everybody’s missin’ it with the whole commercial skippin’ controversy. In my opinion, folks want their programming on auto-pilot most of the time.
I’ve just spent all day in front of a computer at work. All day dealing with my crackberry. All day checking voicemail. All day texting my opposable thumbs into useless nubs on my cell phone. Then there’s the GPS girl I talk to on the way to and from work. When can I get a break? When I plop my ass on the couch and watch some good old fashioned TV. Let that mofo run the commercials and everything ’cause I’m tired of thinkin’.
Later.
3. Dan | December 27th, 2007 at 9:25 am
DVRs DO effect infomercial viewing because sampling
is less likely. People tend to set a DVR up to record
their favorites and not surf as much, the current
writers strike induced lack of new programs not
withstanding. Of course this also means new programs
of any kind are tougher to get sampled simply from viewers surfing to see what’s on. Marketers really have to cut through all the noise these days to get anyone to view a new program. So commercials aren’t the only
area to consider when talking about DVR’s impact on viewing.
Dan
4. FrankM | December 27th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
Where’s the study that says “increasing commercial blocks and moving times and days of shows lead to the growing usage of DVRs”?
And exactly what is the impact of DVRs on PBS stations? The programming that I see has “underwriters” announced before the show and after the show. NO COMMERCIAL INTERRUPTIONS.
If networks killed the traditional 30 second spot in favor of placards with voice-overs before and after a show, maybe then 99% of viewers would see the message.
5. discreet_chaos | December 27th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Have there been any studies which show what percentage of programs are recorded for later viewing, instead of simply being run through the DVR as the default and where you can use the “pause live tv” and “eh? what did he say?” features?.
To assume exponential growth in time-shifting, you have to discount that most of those to whom this ability is important haven’t already jumped on board, or that future adoptees are gong to skip commercials at a higher rate than they’re currently doing with their existing VCR.
6. Jeremiah | December 27th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Here’s my pitch:
for :30, we just show a title card with the company name/logo and website.
That way the DVR skippers get one frame imprinting, and regular viewers get :30 to acquaint themselves with your logo.
Some excellent background beds for said commercial can be found in my music library…… /hint /hint
7. Rob | December 28th, 2007 at 12:44 am
The average American OVER the age of two watches more than four hours of TV a day? That’s a lot of TV (Unless you work in a TV news room), but what I’m wondering about this study is how much does the average American UNDER the age of two watch?
8. Bogopolis | December 28th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
(Full Disclosure: I’m not of the strict ‘newsy’ type like many of you - I simply fall under the New Media umbrella as a user/developer/onlooker/ and former quasi-member of the ‘newsy’ community.)
I don’t watch commercials - nada. My commercial watching is probably less than 1% - my family was discussing commercials at Christmas dinner but I had no ideas what they were talking about - i actually had to YouTube the commercial to find out what they were talking about.
In my opinion (humble at that) I believe that any attempt at time-shifting or trying to fix the current commercial system will not work. We’re fast-forwarding through them now - and it only ticks me off if you mess up the times on me.
It’s gotten so bad that I prefer to watch television shows on DVDs skipping the network and commercials altogether.
The only option I see that advertisers (and networks) have is to incorporate ads into the show (ala ED TV) - they’d be annoying, but it seems to be the only fool-proof way to get the consumers to look at the ads.
I use a DVR primarily to skip commercials. My brother would watch live TV on 15-20 minute delay using his DVR to skip commercials. I’m sure I’m not alone…
Also, google FireBrand for a YouTube approach to commercials…
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