It’s a well-known assumption of our digital lives that young people don’t read printed newspapers (my 9-year-old son, who’s addicted to sports pages, is apparently the exception). So how much longer will newspaper companies continue to print news on paper and truck it to all corners of the city or county? Quite a while, apparently, according to Alan Mutter.
Actuarially speaking, the population of print newspaper readers will drop by nearly a third within 15 years and probably be less than half the size it is today by the time 2040 rolls around.
Writing on his Newsosaur blog, Mutter posted the first of two parts on how the future for printed newspapers is likely to play out. Since half of today’s printed newspaper readers are 50 or older, it seems obvious that print readership will decrease each year as that cohort gets older and dies off. (Reminds me of the industry joke about how newspapers print the names of their best customers every day – on the obituary pages.) So his predictions are not that shocking – but they are well thought-out and backed by excellent sourcing.
Like several of the commenters, I think Mutter’s analysis is optimistic. The assumption that everyone over 50 who is currently reading a printed newspaper will continue to do so until death is a stretch. Rising subscription prices and evolving technology (eBook readers and tablets, oh my!) are factors that will likely alter the final outcome of newspapers in print, too. And maybe, just maybe, the business model for newspaper content online will evolve and publishers won’t have to rely so heavily on print revenues to run their businesses.
