Updated: Like they’ve done for several weeks now, two social sites have accurately predicted the results of American Idol. Tonight, they correctly predicted that Scotty McCreery would walk away the winner.
We first wrote about this phenomenon nearly a month ago, and week after week, we’ve watched as Yap.tv and Likester predicted which contestant would face elimination. The predictions are so uncanny, last week we wondered why the story hasn’t sparked nationwide attention. Now it has.
Let’s start with Likester, which measures millions of Facebook “likes.” Beginning this year, American Idol allowed Facebook voting in the form of “likes,” so naturally Likester began to sift through the data. This week, they predicted Scotty McCreery would walk away the winner, thanks to his 379,321 likes compared to 161,947 for Lauren. And just like previous weeks, they nailed it.
Over on Yap.tv, a social guide that measures Twitter volume and sentiment, Scotty also got the nod. Calling it the “Twitter curse,” Yap.tv has accurately predicted that the contestant with the most Twitter chatter gets eliminated. (It first identified the curse when seemingly popular contestant Pia Toscano was eliminated.) This week, Lauren beat out Scotty with the most chatter, so that meant she’d get the boot. And she did.
Like we wrote last week, it should start worrying American Idol producers about the predictive qualities of social media, which has seemed to hit a statistical critical mass, at least among younger viewers. And next season, both Likester and Yap.tv’s predictions will get a lot more attention.
